Last week, markets gained momentum as a decisive Trump victory reduced political uncertainty and the Fed delivered a 0.25% rate cut, calming fears of high financing costs. Strong tech earnings added to the optimism, while Fed Chair Powell signaled a data-driven approach and hinted at a potential pause in rate cuts if inflation moves toward the 2% target.
This week, attention shifts to a packed economic calendar, including US CPI, Core PPI, and retail sales data, as well as Eurozone GDP. Markets will also focus on key speeches from ECB’s Lagarde, Fed Chair Powell, and BoE’s Bailey.
🇺🇸 October’s CPI and Core CPI — November 13, at 15:30 (GMT+2)
The US Consumer Price Index (CPI) stands out as a critical economic release this week, scheduled for Wednesday. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell will unveil the CPI figures for October.
This announcement follows the Federal Open Market Committee's (FOMC) recent decision to implement a 25 basis point (bps) rate cut. During last week’s meeting, Powell emphasized that the Fed is not considering further rate hikes for now, while acknowledging that many Americans are still grappling with elevated prices. In this context, the upcoming CPI data will be pivotal in shaping future Fed policy directions.
In September, US inflation measured 2.4%, a decrease from 2.5% in August and 2.9% in July, signaling a gradual decline in inflationary pressures since April.
🇪🇺 GDP q/q — November 14, at 12:00 (GMT+2)
The Eurozone GDP q/q report is set for release this week, with forecasts pointing to a steady 0.4% growth, unchanged from the previous quarter. This data will provide insights into the region’s economic health amidst global uncertainties.
The $EURUSD currency pair is expected to be at the center of market reactions, as traders assess the report’s implications for the European Central Bank’s future policy decisions.
🇺🇸 PPI and Core PPI — November 14, at 15:30 (GMT+2)
The US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) is set to release October's Core Producer Price Index (PPI) this week, a key indicator of inflation at the producer level. The report, which tracks price changes at the wholesale stage, plays a significant role in shaping financial market sentiment.
An increase in the PPI signals rising production costs, which could ripple through various sectors of the economy. A higher-than-expected Core PPI, due on Friday, might weigh on major US indices such as the Dow Jones ($US30), Nasdaq ($NAS100), and S&P 500 ($SPX5500), as well as safe-haven assets like gold ($XAUUSD). These same assets are also likely to react to other US economic releases scheduled for the week, underscoring the broad market impact of inflation data.
❗ Key Speeches: Lagarde, Powell & Bailey — November 14, at 21:00-23:00 (GMT+2)
As the week progresses, speeches by central bank leaders, including the Fed's Powell, ECB's Lagarde, and BoE's Bailey, are set to take the spotlight. Markets will be watching closely for signals on potential further rate cuts, which could spark significant reactions across financial markets and cryptocurrencies alike.
🇺🇸 Retail Sales m/m — November 15, at 15:30 (GMT+2)
The US retail sales report closes the week’s lineup of economic events with notable implications for the cryptocurrency market. Scheduled for release on Friday by the Census Bureau, this data will shed light on the latest consumer spending patterns.
As consumer spending forms a significant part of the US economic activity, the report will be closely monitored. In September, retail sales rose by 0.4%, and the forecast for October anticipates a modest 0.3% gain.
If October’s retail sales data surpass expectations, it could indicate a resilient economy and diminishing recession risks. Such positive momentum may bolster investor confidence in riskier assets like stocks and cryptocurrencies, signaling improving economic and financial conditions.
That's it for this week! 👋
As this week brims with crucial economic data points, market participants should brace for potential swings and volatility.
